The research project Alertness has revolutionised weather forecasting in the High North. The tailored weather forecast model provides more accurate forecasts and increased safety for both people and the environment.
The Arctic is changing rapidly. Climate change is causing the sea ice to melt and there is also more and more human activity. In this challenging environment, reliable weather forecasts are essential for safety and sustainable development. However, weather forecasting in the Arctic is challenging due to limited observational coverage, extreme weather conditions and challenges related to modelling of small-scale processes that affect the accuracy of forecasts.
With Alertness, researchers have developed world-leading expertise in the production of reliable and accurate weather forecasts, for the benefit of maritime activities, business and society.
"Through targeted research and close collaboration with users, the Alertness project has built a weather forecasting model for the Arctic, AROME Arctic, which now provides more accurate warnings," explains Jørn Kristiansen, director of the Centre for the Development of Warning Services at the Norwegian Meteorological Institute. The model is also the basis for the Copernicus Arctic Reanalysis, a very accurate weather diary for the Arctic.
Alertness is a research project in collaboration with Finland, the Netherlands and Sweden, and the project has received NOK 23 million in funding as a researcher project from the Research Council of Norway.
Better weather forecasting increases security in the Arctic
Melting sea ice makes the Arctic more accessible to us. Human activities such as shipping, resource extraction (such as oil and gas), tourism, and research are on the rise.
"Increased human activity in the Arctic increases the risk of accidents, oil spills and disruption of the Arctic ecosystem. The unique weather phenomena in the Arctic, such as polar lows and maritime icing, require more accurate weather models to ensure better forecasts," says Kristiansen. In addition to the fact that the forecasts are of great use to the Norwegian Meteorological Institute's meteorologists in Tromsø, the forecasts are also available on Yr.
Better weather forecasting through the AROME Arctic weather forecasting model can contribute to:
- Safety at sea: Better wind forecasts provide safer navigation for shipping and the fishing fleet, which in turn reduces the risk of accidents and groundings.
- Emergency preparedness and planning: Accurate forecasts of extreme weather, such as polar lows and icing, enable preventive measures and evacuation procedures to be initiated. In this way, we can protect both lives and infrastructure.
- Sustainable development: Improved weather forecasting supports responsible resource extraction and tourism, while also helping to protect the vulnerable Arctic ecosystem.
Through the Alertness project, the researchers have not only delivered a tailor-made weather forecast model, but also concrete tools and solutions that are already in use. Here are some examples:
- Wind map on Yr: The project has contributed greatly to the development of a wind map that, among other things, responds to the needs of Hurtigruten Expeditions, which in turn contributes to safer and more efficient expeditions.
- Icing on ships: Alertness has developed methods to warn of icing on ships, a serious threat that can lead to capsizing and shipwrecks.
- Better snow observations: The research has led to improvements in the way we quality assure the measurement and modelling of snowfall, which is crucial for assessing avalanche risk and planning safety measures in a changing climate.
See our video about the Alertness project (in Norwegian)
Open data and Norway at the forefront of Arctic weather forecasting
Alertness has made all its data open, so that researchers, companies and private individuals can use it for their own purposes. The researchers in the project have also been important contributors to international research collaborations, which has helped to strengthen Norway's position as a leading player in polar research.
"Alertness has put Norway in the driver's seat for research and development in Arctic weather forecasting. We have shown that research can have a direct and positive impact on society. It is rewarding to see the results of our work being used to save lives and assets," says Kristiansen.
High-performance computing is the key to accurate weather forecasts
Weather forecasting in the Arctic requires enormous amounts of data and advanced calculations. In order to run the complex climate models used in AROME Arctic, meteorologists rely on high-performance calculations. This involves the use of powerful computers that can perform billions of calculations per second.
"High-performance computing is absolutely essential to be able to process observational data from satellites, weather stations and other sources, and to be able to quickly generate accurate and detailed weather forecasts. Without access to high-performance computing, it would have been impossible to develop and operate an advanced weather forecasting model like AROME Arctic," says Kristiansen.
Financing that delivers results
The funding from the Research Council of Norway has been crucial to Alterness' success. Without this support, it would not have been possible to develop AROME Arctic. The project has laid a solid foundation for further research and development for weather forecasting in the Arctic. The results will continue to have a positive impact on society for years to come, helping to make the Arctic a safer and more predictable place to live and work.